While the festive season approaches, London’s markets are witnessing shifting trends in turkey sales as Christmas 2024 draws near. Overall spending growth has declined by 1.4% for the four weeks ending December 29 compared to last year, signaling changing consumer habits. Turkey crowns have seen a 2.2% increase in value sales, despite volume growth plummeting by 4.2%, indicating higher prices per unit.
The historical journey of turkeys to British Christmas tables dates back centuries. First brought to Europe from North America in the sixteenth century, turkeys gained royal approval when Henry VIII became the first monarch to feast on them during Christmas celebrations. However, they didn’t replace goose as the festive centerpiece until the 1950s, well after becoming popular during Queen Victoria’s reign.
Turkeys’ royal journey from Henry VIII’s table to Victorian popularity finally displaced the traditional goose in 1950s Britain.
Market share for fresh turkey has dropped to 34.2%, representing a 1.1% decline from 2023. Different retailers are experiencing varied performance, with Lidl seeing an impressive 44.2% year-on-year gain in fresh turkey volume, the largest increase among major supermarkets. Tesco follows with a 37.7% uptick between December 2023 and 2024, with whole birds dominating their sales despite price reductions. The current bird flu season has resulted in approximately 300,000 birds being culled, affecting availability in some markets. Meanwhile, frozen breast joints have experienced extraordinary growth with +31.7% in spending and +26.2% in volume.
Price changes have markedly affected consumer choices. Premium free-range turkeys have risen from £18 to £23 per kilogram, representing a 30% increase. However, frozen turkeys now average £13.52, which is 3.6% less than Christmas 2024, making them a more economical option for budget-conscious shoppers.
Consumer preferences continue to evolve, with only 52% of UK households planning turkey for their main Christmas meal, down from 60% in 2019. Meanwhile, chicken has grown in popularity, with 25% choosing it over turkey, up from 16% six years ago. Additionally, 13% of households now plan vegetarian or vegan Christmas dinners, showing a slight increase of one percentage point since 2019.
Despite competitive pressures from imported butterfly meat and rising popularity of alternatives like beef, lamb, and pork, turkey remains the top protein choice for the main Christmas Day meal across London’s markets. Despite economic challenges, taste and tradition are driving 68% of consumers to prioritize these factors over budget considerations when selecting their Christmas proteins.
